Analysts with JP Morgan are forecasting new cases of COVID-19 infections in Australia will peak around 15 April, but there may be a second surge if isolation restrictions are eased too early.
The April estimate may be revised, but Australia has been testing often and early, which is helping contain the spread. Australia’s testing rate is currently 5,624 per million people, second only to South Korea.
The lockdowns are likely to lead to a double digit decline in economic growth in the second quarter of 2020 and an 11 per cent unemployment rate.
Globally, COVID-19 cases increased 35 per cent over the past 24 hours with the most cases diagnosed in the United States, up 10.395. The global death rate is currently 4.4 per cent, but is 9.5 per cent in Italy.
“Per our model, we forecast that the active infection cases will peak to about 9,500 by mid to end April 2020,” the team led by Siddharth Parameswaran writes in a note to clients, using estimates from its Asian Insurance analyst MW Kim.
“We caution at this stage that the model is based on a fitted curve to relatively sparse data.”